日本の政局を、占う。

予測不能な現代社会。

日本の未来、そして政局も混迷を極めているが、歴代首相の動物占い判断をしてみると、なんとなく未来予想図が描けるような、描けないような。けっこう当たっている気がするのは私だけだろうか。

小渕恵三氏（ひつじ）：人恋しい博愛主義者。一本気で穏やかなひつじの男性は、ルールを守る良識派。かなり博識で、駆け引きも得意。凝り性で、興味をもったことはとことん追求。

森喜朗氏（小守熊）：夢見がちな現実主義者。1日中ユーカリの木の上でじっとしている子守熊のように、ぼーっとする時間がなくちゃ駄目。ぼーっとしている間にパワーを蓄える。しかも究極の快楽主義者なので楽しいこと大好き。何をするにも楽しくなくちゃ損と思っている。

小泉純一郎氏（ライオン）：大らかな完璧主義者。特別扱い・目立つのは当たり前。世間体や人目を気にし、常に弱みは見せません。ライオンの男性は、ずばり「体育会系」。ブランドやステイタスにこだわり、出世争いにも猛勇果敢に飛び込みます。ちなみに鳩山由紀夫氏もこれ。

安倍晋三氏（小鹿）：甘えん坊なナチュラリスト。依存心が強く受け身なところをまわりがほうっておけないので甘えていられる役得も。飾り気がなく純粋なところがあるこじかの男性。積極的な押しには欠けるけど、自然と周りから引き立てられてリーダーに祭り上げられたりもします。中曽根康弘氏も小鹿というのはちょっと意外。

福田康夫氏（狼）：個性豊かなマイペース人間。群れをなさない狼のように、人とは違う生き方を常に心がけている。マイペースで何をするにも自己流がポイント。一人の時間や空間を大事にするので変わり者と思われがちだけど、変わっていると言われるのが嬉しかったりも。そう、「あなたとは違うんです。」って言ってました。他に宮沢喜一氏も狼(笑)。

麻生太郎氏（猿）：人マネの上手い猿のように、何事も器用にこなせるけど、じっとしているのが苦手なので起きている間は複数のことを同時進行しちゃうくらい活発に動き回ります。しかもおだてにめちゃめちゃ弱く、褒められるとなんでもやっちゃう。猿の男性は、ユーモアあふれる気さくな人。

菅直人氏（虎）：貫禄のある働き者。悠然とした虎のように慌てず騒がず、落ち着いた雰囲気を持つ。ただ、思い込みが強く自分の考えを曲げなくて迷惑がられるなんてことも。虎男性は、タフな自信家。困っている人に手を差しのべる人情派。即断即決が苦手で、急な出来事にはパニック！橋本龍太郎氏もこれ。

振り返ってみると、納得できるけど、予測可能性を高めるはしないかなあ。

-----
尚、上記にあたっては、Wikipediaと動物占いを参照させて頂きました。

History Lessons?

Japan's political leadership has been in a mess for years. The prime minister of the 3rd largest country changes every single year or less. So, I supposed no political events would surprise me until recent news reported Yukio Hatoyama, a former premier, asked Naoto Kan, his successor, to resign the job. This is pretty surpring given what Hatoyama had done during his term in the office.

Looks like there is some kind of seniority system among premiership. Or Hatoyama must be a terminator for himself and/or someone else. In "Terminator" the movie, however, the robot comes from the future. Unfortunately this Japanese came from the past. Okay, we'd better suppose he's just an alien as he is called so.

When Hatoyama quit his job as prime minister a year ago, I assumed hopefully that he might become a Jimmy Carter, one of the greatest ex-Presidents of the U.S.A. That was only a possibility, though. It was neither my expectation nor hope. Still, his recent initiative is not the case at all.

While a predecessor criticizes a current premier and asks him to resign in Japan, the opposite case applies in Korea. In this peninsula country, a predecessor is criticized and punished by a current president. Remember what Kim Young Sam did to Jeon Doo Hwan? The ex-President deserved it, but it also looked used as a scapegoat to hike successor's approval rate. And this isn't the only case.

To summarize, Japanese tend to forget history while Korean criticize (and scapegoat) one. I only hope this is my hasty generalization, and many events are exceptional.

The two countries have been discussing to make their relationship future-oriented. Yet, they've got to make their own country's politics future-oriented in the first place.

International Monetary Football

On Dec 2, FIFA's executive committee voted to decide World Cup host countries in 2018 and 2022. As a result, Russia won the host in 2018, and Qatar in 2022. The committee must have assessed so many factors of each candidate: vision, stadiums, transportation, concept, security and more. Yet, reportedly, it is said that strong government support did contribute to the awards for Russia and Qatar.

Wait a minute. A strong government support? Hey, sovereign debt crisis is a huge concern around the globe right now. Ever since the global financial crisis hit here and there, the IMF has been busy with providing its financial packages to many countries. Also, still others are concerned for sovereign risks: The United Arab Emirates (or Dubai to be precise), Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy.

Without doubt, to host a FIFA World Cup costs a lot. A host country (or its football association) needs fundraise a lot of money. As taking a look at Moody's sovereign credit ratings (as of today) for the countries which bid for the World Cup host, however, FIFA seems a risk-taker.

The World Cup 2018
England: Aaa (the United Kingdom)
Belgium & Netherlands: Aa1, Aaa
Spain & Portugal: Aa1, A1
Russia: Baa1

The World Cup 2022
USA: Aaa
Australia: Aaa
Japan: Aa2
Qatar: Aa2
Korea: A1

Now you can see Russia and Qatar are the lowest credit ratings among the bidders. Well, South Korea is lower than Qatar, but the country did host in 2002! I can't check the credit ratings for South Africa and Brazil when the two were awarded. Still, today's ratings are A3 and Baa3 respectively. In other words, a BBB country like Russia had a fairly good chance to win it.

Among BRICs, now Brazil is hosting in 2014 and Russia in 2018. Seems like China (Aa3) and India (Baa3) have a good chance to be a host in 2026 or later games. As for India, however, the nation perhaps needs give up cricket. The 11 billion's passion. And that's not a easy thing to happen in the near future.

Yes You Can

In his speech at the Democratic National Convention in 2004, Mr. Obama said "there's not a liberal America and a conservative America; there's the United States of America."

It's a great, moving statement. Not only Americans but also people around the globe were impressed by the young senator from Illinois.

Like many others, however, I had some doubt on his points. Perhaps because I lived in Missouri: the state known as "Show Me" state. Or because I received a "critical thinking" education at a US college. Or as a risk analyst, I've been trained to assume the worst scenarios for every single case. (I'd like to strongly deny the last possibility, though.)

It's easier to be said than done.

Yesterday's Mid-term election results are discouraging for Obama administration. Reportedly Democrats retained its majority in Senate, but House was overtaken by GOP. President Obama took the responsibility for "shellacking".

Still, as far as I know, he hasn't given up his 2nd term in the oval office, and above all his presidential term has 2 more years. It's not over. Given the worst recession since the Great Depression and the mid-term election results, his task is harder than ever. As Alan, a French philosopher, said, "Pessimism comes from our passions, optimism from the will." Now is the time for Mr. Obama to put his words into action. A show time has just started.

Yes, You Can, Mr. Obama.

Japain No Gain?

Japan is on the cover of the Economist again: "Leaderless Japan". Every time the British weekly newspaper (or any other foreign media) covers Japan, its reports, esp. about lack of political leadership, are daunting and hopeless. Someone even argued that Japan is lucky to have such a flexible political system to change its premier while America is not. The point was, nobody couldn't stop George Bush, and he was the President of the U.S. for 2 consecutive terms. That's totally nonsense. America does have an impeachment process, and the Congress could take such an initiative if they really wanted to do so. And they didn't.

How about business (specifically banking sector)? Last month the Economist's special reports covered banks in emerging markets. The report discussed two kinds of successful foreign banks in the markets. The first are global network banks: Citigroup, HSBC and Standard Chartered. The other are "gone native" banks such as Santander, BBVA and UniCredit. Not surprisingly the countries of foreign banks and of emerging markets had a deep-rooted relationship of colonial rule and immigration, and use the same languages. Japan had been a colonialist country but failed to make a good relationship with the Asian nations it governed. Japanese is also a language used only by 125 million people living the islands.

So, a question is whether Japanese banks can survive in the global market, esp. by entering into and expanding its business in the emerging markets? Last week an investment banker said Japan's strengths is technology backed by Research & Development while its weakness is commercializing. I couldn't agree with him more. Still, such an argument seems to apply only to manufacturers not financial sector. Then, what's the expertise of Japanese banks? The only answer I could find is a bit old joke. But, it's brilliant one.

-----
Sorry. Only Japanese is available... To make a long story short, Japanese bankers can contribute by counting votes in Miami of the U.S. presidential election in 2000.

Best Songs of the Year

2009 will be remembered as the year of the change. And of a new start.

The Obama administration took office in January as well as the Hatoyama in September. Personally, started a new job in January and to go to business school in September.

Also, the past year was very fruitful for me to meet great, favorite, new songs. Not quite sure whether it is because the releases of many great songs just happened this year or because I tried to find ones harder with some reasons. To my long list of favorite songs short, however, here is the one of the top ten.

1. Life Is Good (by DJ Deckstream feat. Mos Def): Make me very positive.
2. Empire State of Mind (by Jay-Z feat. Alicia Keys): Make me miss NYC!
3. Special (by Snoop Dogg feat. Brandy and Pharell): Although Snoopy isn't my favorite artist and his latest album has just released this month, this song is SPECIAL.
4. Make Her Say (by Kid Cudi feat. Kanye West and Common): Lady Gaga isn't my favorite either, but her catchy, pop song can be a great HipHop.
5. Energy (by Keri Hilson): Charge me.
6. If Tonight Is My Last (by Laura Izibor): a live is greater.
7. Alive (by Black Eyed Peas): BEP is still alive.
8. Decision (by Busta Rhymes feat. Jamie Foxx, Mary J. Blige, John Legend & Common): With all the musicians listed, a great song guaranteed.
9. Wavin' Flag (by K'naan): As once a political science major, and a friend of Somalis, wish the peace come to the Horn of Africa. I might take part in it. Who knows?
10. Keep Pushin' (by Kero One): Nice one.

Best Wishes for the New EAR to y'all!!

사랑하고 싶어

If the pictures below ring your bell with a classic Korean pop song, 소방차 (Fire Engine)'s "사랑하고 싶어 (I Want To Love You)", you must have been living in Korea around 1990. (I did!)

"소방차"는 아니지만...

Love Tokyo

By the way, the International Olympic Committee will meet next Friday in Copenhagen, to decide the host of 2016 Olympic Games. As many of you know, candidates are Rio de Janeiro, Madrid, Chicago and Tokyo.

I do love Tokyo (and Chicago).

But, also I Want To Love You, IOC!!

Summer Wars

It was on my way back to Tokyo when this animation movie caught my attention at Gimpo Airport. When the movie came out to box offices earlier in Japan, I dismissed it is just another Japanese cartoon. Well, it turned out not. The film is added to my (short) DVD shopping list.

Summer Wars

Summer Wars is about family reunion, the history of samurai, (a bit futuristic) information technology, high school baseball, teenage love and so on.

Natsuki, a 18-year-old girl, asks Kenji to come to Ueda, Nagano (located in central Japan) with her to see her great grandmother and relatives, pretending to be her boyfriend. Although he wasn't used to such a huge family get-together, he starts to enjoy the time at Ueda.

But, everything becomes so different after he replied to a spam mail. Followed by ID thefts happening all over the world; computer-controlled systems of utilities and public transportation go into a panic. Then, Kenji, Natsuki and all the family members try to save the world...

Doesn't sound so exciting, does it? Unlike most of (non-cartoon) Japanese movies, however, the story isn't slow. As watching it, I burst into laughter so many times. And a bit of tear drops. Gosh, after all, I really wanna visit my grandma!


Shortly after back from Seoul, a news followed: a former Korean president's death. Kim Daejung, a Nobel peace prize winner, opened up Japanese pop culture coming into Korea. Thanks to him, the movie is in the theaters in Korea (I watched it after having come back to Tokyo though). I was also very delighted to see so many Korean names (perhaps for CG works) on the ending roll.

***

There is another "Summer War" this year in Japan. General election is held tomorrow. As predicted, will the Democratic Party of Japan defeat the post-war dynasty of the Liberal Democratic Party? Or will LDP survive accidentally? Can't leave TV tomorrow night. It's a D-day. Let's vote and see.

なでしこジャパン

なでしこジャパン。

とは言っても、スポーツ選手ではありません。

国際機関、国際協力の分野で活躍する日本人女性。

多いですよね。

日本社会で活躍の場が限られていた、国連や世銀で日本人女性を積極採用していることもあるのでしょうが、個人の信念、能力も秀でたものがあるのでしょう。

緒方貞子さん。現在はJICAの理事長ですが、まだUNHCRのトップだった頃、NYCで会った赤十字の人が、彼女をすごく尊敬していたのが強く印象に残っています。

世界銀行副総裁を務めた西水美恵子さん。昨夏、「貧困に立ち向かう仕事」に掲載されていた彼女のスピーチを読んで、涙が止まりませんでした。そして、先日は講演会&サイン会に行ってきました!!

昨年、世銀グループのMIGAトップに就任した小林いずみさん。今後の活躍が注目されます。

そして、瀬谷ルミ子さんや高嶋由美子さん。他にも現場で活躍する人もたくさんいますよね。私と同い年ぐらいの人も結構います。

そんななでしこジャパンを誇りに思い、尊敬します。そして、自分は今、何をしているんだろう、という焦りも。 一応男なので、なでしこジャパンの一員になりたい、というよりは、国際舞台で活躍する日本人の一人になりたい、ということですが（笑）。

昨日、録画しておいたNHKプロフェッショナルを観て、改めて感じました。（何ヶ月も前に録画していたのを今頃…（^^;））

Still talking 'bout Steel

The world has been keeping its eyes on those "Steelers" at the Capitol Hill who try to make the last minute touchdown by including a Buy-American (iron and steel) provision in its economic stimulus package. We'll wait and see whether they are as good as Pittsburgh Steelers that made it at last Sunday's Super Bowl. If the bill includes such a provision, other countries are most likely to retaliate with "Bye American". They are neither "Bestbuy" nor "Good-bye".

The shifts to protectionism is mounted all over the world. The increases in tariff and of government loan/guarantee are here and there. Professor Paul Krugman, a laureate of the latest Nobel prize in Economics, also discusses the benefits of "protectionism", but only when some specifications (contained, short-run one during a global liquidity trap) meet. The news reports from Davos in the past one week were colored by the criticisms on American capitalism for spreading the financial crisis.

Yet, fewer reports highlighted Putin's speech in his blame on the U.S. than in his remarks on the importance of economic liberalization. Interestingly enough, the premier emphasized the importance of free trade and so on. It's a bit self-contradictory while observing his country having increased its tariff on car imports and the state interventions in Sakhalin gas projects. Still, it's obvious the world needs market economy and the U.S. to come back with a solid, economic growth.

It's been a while since the Iron Maiden has gone. Now where is the "Iron Man" who save the world?

Fit for Office?!

After a long, long coffee break, I'm back to work now.

Ever since I quit my job, Nikkei dropped by approx. 40%; Sony, Toyota and numerous, other companies announced thousands of jobcuts each. The unemployment in Japan has been up to 3 million, or by 0.5% to 4.4% last December. For those living in a country with unumployment rate of 6% or higher, the figure isn't that impressive, but this is the highest monthly jump in 41 years. Economic outlook is so dim that IMF has just lowered Japan's GDP growth rate in 2009 to -2.6%. Given such circumstances, I'm grateful to my employer for giving me this job opportunity.

I'm not as "fit for office" as Obama. From Day One, the new president of the U.S.A. immediately implemented his new policies by shutting down the Guantanamo Bay detention camp and working on $800 billion sitmulus package. On the other hand, I did nothing but greeting my new colleagues and reading some employee manuals on my first day. Still, I felt extremely exhausted. Hopefully, I'm fit to work physically like Obama's shirtless photo in Hawaii, though.

After only a week at a new office, it's hard to say I'm fit to the job, and able to get along with my colleagues (esp. my boss). At least the business is quite similar to my previous job, and the people are likable. I'm doing my best to be more polite and more respectful than usual. After all, one thing for sure: weekend's coffee break is, priceless even though such a break is far shorter than that long, long one.

Thank You for Reminding

As a Japanese, I'm used to an earthquake. It's a part of our daily life. We have been trained how to escape and protect ourselves since six. But, this one is enough.

It was the last week of 2008 when a group of workers drilled and paved the nearby roads at day and night. A night! Every single night for a week!! Thanks to their hard work, our apartment was shaking and the windows vibrating. The shake and the noise of drilling sometimes woke me up at 3am.

As a descendant of patient samurais, I endured that, hoping for a happy, peaceful new year. I was wrong. They're back to my neighborhood again. A couple of days ago, a flyer was slipped into my mail box. It says they are laying a new underground water pipes. Drilling again!!

Bring in Da Noise

They are unwelcome Santa Clauses, coming back every year and doing similar work. A couple of years ago, the roads were paved neatly. Then, somebody else came to lay water pipes or something just in a year. So, the roads are a mess now. I wonder why they can't do all the work at once.

Bring in Da Bump

A civil servant once said all these constructions around this time of year has one specific purpose: spending the money to keep up with their budget. Otherwise, the budget will be cut next year.

Yet, this time it might have anothe objective: a reminder for us a week before Barack Obama's inauguration. George Bush is still in White House, but everyone's eyes are on Obama. John McCain was always (if not sometimes) in a top news story just until a couple of months ago. Now nobody wonder where and how Sarah Palin and Joe the Plumber are. Well, here they are! The female mayor (no governor) of my city must be a wanna-be Sarah Palin with the same slogan "drill, drill, drill!!" Joe the plumber and his friends are her big supporters laying water pipes. Sadly, the mayor's initiative is neiher for profit-making nor for national security.

"Survivor" (by Destiny's Child)

We still have two weeks left, but the past one year has been a full of surprises and changes. No one can blame on those - except economists and fortune-tellers - who predicted the would-be 2008 events (The 10 Worst Predictions in 2008, Foreign Policy). They ain't Nostradamus. But, it's even surprising we're now immune to such surprises as Lehman's bankruptcy, all the baliout packages to financial and possibly to auto industries, layoffs, volatile stock and oil prices, America's new president-elect, etc.

Personally, I had some changes and a surprise this year as well. I quit my job, and passed U.S. CPA exams at last. And surprisingly, I haven't found a job yet. Given today's economic conditions, it's not surprising, but I don't regret my decision. Rather, I feel lucky not to be working at a Titanic company, and even feel excting and fun to be exposed to the stormy ocean.

We shall overcome!!

Cheers

Having watched Barack Obama's victory speech on CNN, I walked down to a nearby Starbucks coffee shop. Unlike Starbucks in U.S.A., the Japanese arm serves no free drip coffee. But, it did offer an alternative: "Kenya Coffee" for today's coffee - I have no clue whether it did on purpose. Although I had to wait for several minutes to be brewed and prepared, I picked a cup of "Kenya Coffee" rather than that of "Christmas Blend". (We have a plenty of time for celebrating Christmas!!)

a new president, a new America,

a new paper cup, a new insulating sleeve

and

a new world?!

After the "bitter" 8 years, what will the new administration be like? I also wonder how long a Caramel-Macchiato-like honeymoon will last. For your information, Starbucks describes Kenyan Coffee such that "medium-bodied Kenya has layers of flavor, from black currant or blackberry to sweet, tropical fruit" and that "the coffee is prized for its bright and refreshing quality." It wasn't my favorite flavor, though. I rather prefer "Breakfast Blend", "Espresso Roast" and "Colombia".

"Rise & Fall" (Craig David feat. Sting)

Last Friday a piece of USA Today article provided me an eye-opening view for watching this year's World Series. Coincidentally, the rivalry of the World Series has some similarities with that of the U.S. presidential election next month (but in only a week now!).

Tampa Bay Rays's General Manager Andrew Friedman is 31 years old, and Manager Joe Maddon 54. Owner Stuart Sternberg, 48, and President Matt Silverman, 32, are both young and former investment bankers from Goldman Sachs, and Friedman, a former Bear Sterns analyst, it's no wonder this team is good at data analysis and scouting. Needless to say, they constantly use Blackberries.

On the other hand, the Philadelphia Phillies's management team is "old-school baseball guys" of General Manager Pat Gillick, 71, and Manager Charlie Manuel, 64. The Phillies was founded in 1883 while Rays in 1998.

All look familiar? Yes, the Phillies is just like John McCain, 72, and the Rays Barack Obama, 47. They even have a similar twist (read the article for the details) such that Obama appointed experienced, 65-year-old Joe Biden for his running mate while Sarah Palin, 44, for McCain's running mate.

Will the old-school guys survive as life expectancy gets higher? We will see those results as early as today or in a week, but this is a kind of dynamism America has, I believe. What about Japan? Well, its politics seems hopeless, but as appointing Tatsunori Hara, 50, for the manager, there is ray of light for the team Japan of the World Baseball Classic.

After all, as somebody said, baseball is national pastime. And hopefully international one.

Back to the Future

So, here comes a deja-vu.

South Korea's President says his country should pursue a future-oriented relationship with Japan. Then Japan unnerves its neighboring country by bringing up a controversial issue. This time, Dokdo (in Korean) or Takeshima (in Japanese), whichever you prefer to call them.

I'm not sure whether the islands belong to Korea or Japan. However, I believe it is not historians but politicians obligated to discuss and determine the sovereignty issue over the islands. It seems to me that this dispute has been unresolved over half a century because of the negligence of politicians and diplomats. Both Korean and Japanese.

share a slice peacefully

Politicians and media in both countries should stop using the islands as political tool. It has always helped boost Korean president's approval rate, though. Or is there any confidential agreement between the two administrations?: Keeping the islands for dispute so that Japanese government brings up the issue whenever the approval rate of Korean president gets closer to the bottom.

When the Korean president talks about its future-oriented relationship with Japan, he always add such that the past should never be forgotten. Indeed, future is merely an extention of present and, past. I wonder if this is what the "future-oriented relationship" really means.

Still, I'm getting sick of watching this political sitcom. As far as I remember, this "Back to the Future" dispute have arisen during the administrations of Lee MyungBak, Roh MooHyun and Kim Young Sam (not sure about Kim DaeJung). Given that the movie series "Back to the Future" ended with the three stories, isn't it time to end this political adventure comedy as well?

Democracy is Hypocrisy

Let me remind you of the fact that American presidency has been governed by Bush and Clinton dynasty for a score of years starting from George Bush Senior's presidency in 1989. Plus, taking into account that Senior was the vice president of Reagan administration, and suppose Hillary takes the Oval Office in 2009 (and in 2013), it's gonna be over a generation!!

No wonder Barack Obama has enjoyed such huge supports all over the US until the recent defeats in Texas and Ohio. Obama's campaign has been characterized by two key words: change and hope. Until recently, it seemd to work. However, now it is himself and his campaign strategy to change. Otherwise, his speech only sounds only hopeless. Yes You Can.

Democracy is hypocrisy. It is not democracy but farce that Putin solidified his czar in Russia. Also, as seeing helpless fights (it's not even discussion!!) over the governor of Bank of Japan and the extension of "temporary" tax in the Japanese parlianments, politicians are just wasting time, and not listening to the voices from its voters and the world. During the Bush and Clinton dynasty, Japan has had 12 or so prime ministers. Considering Britain had only four prime ministers, Thatcher, Major, Blair, and Brown now, the cause of such shuffling rumbling political leadership in Japan is not in political system itself.

Plato was right in the case of Japanese democracy.